A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
